$20 billion boom to keep the Gold Coast property market firing on all cylinders

Strong population growth, a fast-growing economy and more than $20 billion in infrastructure and investment ahead of the 2032 Olympic Games will continue to drive the Gold Coast property market over the next decade, according to a new report by Colliers.

With vacancies in both the commercial and residential property sectors at new lows, Colliers’ latest Gold Coast Market Overview forecasts the city will continue outperforming the rest of the country to become the epicentre of the post-COVID recovery for investors and national developers.

The Colliers report says confidence in the market is supported by the Gold Coast Metro residential vacancy rate which has halved to 0.4 per cent over the past year and is now well below Sydney Metro (1.6 per cent) and Brisbane Metro (0.7 per cent).

However, the report warns that rising costs could stall future residential developments which could further fuel the supply and demand imbalance already impacting the market.

“Despite the headwinds facing the residential sector nationally, the forward-looking fundamentals of the Gold Coast market are as robust as we have seen at any other time in the past two years,” said Steven King, the Gold Coast director in charge at Colliers.

“The city’s expected population growth over the next decade will continue to drive demand for housing at a time when supply remains very tight and vacancy rates are at record lows.”

The Colliers report reveals that the Gold Coast is on track to grow its population by 145,000 to almost 800,000 by 2032 as the region plays host the Olympic Games. That means the Gold Coast will need to accommodate an average of 14,500 additional residents every year until the Games.

With the median price of homes on the Gold Coast at $940,000, the demand shift to apartments will increasingly fill the gap of affordability for new residents, the report finds.

The Gold Coast’s economic dynamo is expected to drive the population and property boom over the next decade with the city’s economic growth rate currently outpacing those of Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane,

The Gold Coast economy has doubled over the past 10 years to $39.24 billion and now accounts for more than 10 per cent of the Queensland economy.

The economy is forecast to grow by 5.6 per cent in 2022, driven by a broad-based recovery of the tourism sector and significant expansion of the healthcare sector which has been the fastest-growing sector of the Gold Coast economy over the past five years.

This Gold Coast has added 15,600 jobs in the 12 months to the end of March, bringing the city’s workforce to 302,397 – or almost half its resident population of more than 643,000.

The Colliers report has highlighted $20.9 billion in public and private infrastructure spending as the catalyst for sustained growth from projects such as the Southport CBD rejuvenation ($5 billion), Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct investment ($5 billion), Olympic rail infrastructure upgrade ($2.2 billion) and the stage three extension of the Gold Coast light rail ($1 billion).

“The improved regional transport infrastructure will positively impact the scale and investment profile of the local property market, attracting capital from institutional investors,” said Mr King.

“More jobs, more people, a bigger economy, improved infrastructure and higher demand from businesses will be the key drivers of growth. Infrastructure spending for the Olympics will play a significant role in this growth, but even without this in the mix, the Gold Coast is still the best placed market for growth in Australia in the near term.”

The Colliers report finds that lifestyle buyers continue to flock to the Gold Coast post pandemic, inspired by the ‘work from home’ phenomenon.

“Rising interest rates will have some effect on residential demand, and we’re seeing that in Sydney and Melbourne,” said Mr King. “However, despite the gains we’ve seen on the Gold Coast in the past two years, property affordability remains compelling to interstate buyers who are also attracted by a city that is firing on all cylinders.”