A Fourth ‘Big Shift’ Looms

In 2001, the renowned demographer Bernard Salt wrote The Big Shift, a portrayal of the demographic trends that have shaped our nation since Federation.The first and second shifts were essentially the establishments of the city and bush cultures.The third became known as the Seachange phenomenon and involved the exodus of people from the bush and the cities to live by the beach.This culture accelerated during the property boom from 2002 and 2007 and saw areas like Southeast Queensland experience exponential population growth.The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 put an end to the rapid growth of these areas and the hangover of these exuberant times is well and truly evident.Just last week the Courier Mail reported that the number of people moving to Queensland from interstate had reached its lowest level since records began 38 years ago – the 12,000 that moved to Queensland in the year ending June 2010 is actually less than were coming to the Gold Coast at the height of the boom.I’ve got a theory that a new shift is emerging and will focus on areas of opportunity combining the vital ingredient that fuelled the Seachange phenomenon, lifestyle, and Australia’s economic saviour, the resources boom.I’ve been doing a lot of work in Central Queensland (covering Gladstone, Rockhampton, Yeppoon, Mackay) and the data I am seeing from the region is quite simply mind boggling.The region is subject to more than $100 billion of proposed investment in the resources sector (covering primarily Gladstone, Bowen and Surat basins) and $66 billion has already been committed to LNG projects with pipelines from the Bowen and Surat Basins to processing plants in Gladstone.These are just figures until measured against other benchmarks – Western Australia’s giant Gorgon project has an estimated value of more than $43 billion and is the largest single resource natural gas project in Australia’s history.The public in areas like Central Queensland are sceptical about what this boom on their doorstep means for them. The ‘fly in fly out’ policy currently limits economic spending by resource sector workers to airport transit lounges. But there are moves to change that.The beauty of these areas is that they are not reliant on the resources boom – they are already rich in economic diversity and they know it.Take Rockhampton – that much maligned and often overlooked city in the heart of it all which is one of the state’s richest regional centres. (Rockhampton’s economy for example includes beef and agriculture, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton Regional Hospital, is a military training area with Shoalwater Bay and the regional centre for government administration at all levels.)The resources boom is not a necessity but an opportunity and the region’s main stakeholders are scrambling to take advantage of this new paradigm in the Australian economy.They are bracing for the probability that they are going to experience one of the biggest growth phases in their history and they want other industries along for the ride.The tourism industry – a victim of the GFC, the strong Australian dollar, and the floods – is keen to bring the message home that it is well and truly open for business and can offer those in the resources industry an experience that is hard to find anywhere in the world -  The Great Barrier Reef and Great Keppel Island are right on the door step of Yeppoon.The missing link for these areas is infrastructure.A recent report by EC3 Global highlighted the desperate need for 975 rooms to meet tourism demand and a growing conference market. As such there is only one project on the drawing board that will come close to meeting this demand, the $35 million Oshen beachfront apartments on the Yeppoon beachfront.The Queensland Government pinpointed Rockhampton in its regionalisation strategy, recognising the likelihood of significant growth driven by the resources sector. Its details are yet to be released.Like Central Queensland, cities in the northern parts of West Australia are also expected to sustain high levels of growth and the need for a regional capital to service mining in the Pilbara region has been identified for some time.With housing affordability across the nation’s cities at tipping point, traffic snarls and congestion impacting on quality of life in the capitals and the once quiet seachange destinations, there is a compelling argument for the next Big Shift to be in regional areas like Rockhampton and Mackay.These areas are experiencing dynamic growth driven by the resources sector and they offer employment opportunities and a great family lifestyle to boot – all they need now is people to cotton onto what the locals already know.