New report finds Gold Coast's 2041 residential expansion capacity to hit the wall within a decade

The Queensland Government has severely underestimated the Gold Coast’s capacity to deliver on its housing forecasts by 2041, with a new report revealing that the city’s existing expansion area is likely to run dry of development capacity in a little over a decade.

The detailed analysis presented in the 2023 Gold Coast Dwelling Supply Study has determined that the government’s updated dwelling supply estimates for the Gold Coast are ‘questionable’, after finding that over the past two years alone the Gold Coast has seen a 20 per cent drop in greenfield land availability within the urban footprint to meet the state’s Shaping SEQ targets.

Among the key findings of the report are that instead of accommodating 57,194 dwellings based on the raw figures, the economic reality is that the Gold Coast’s current expansion area can only viably deliver just 17,564 dwellings.

The study, prepared by Zone Planning Group, BIOME Consulting, Matusik Property Insights and Zone Landscape Architecture, reveals that since 2020 alone the Gold Coast expansion zone has dropped 508ha to 1,953ha with the lost capacity being absorbed by non-residential purposes such as schools, hospitals, roads, parks and commercial development.

The results further show that the Environmental Significance Overlay affecting developable land across all land use zones has led to the removal of about 57 per cent of the land area within the study area.

The analysis, which aims to determine the realistic availability of land within the Gold Coast’s expansion area to accommodate residential development through to 2041, provides reality check for state government’s forecasts for Gold Coast housing availability over the next 18 years.

“Our study has determined that, based on the application of current planning controls, the Gold Coast’s expansion area is realistically only able to provide up to 17,564 dwellings by 2041,” says Michael Matusik of Matusik Property Insight.

“While this already falls below the adjusted 2041 benchmark of 19,212 dwellings set by ShapingSEQ, our analysis shows that only about half of that estimate, or 10,542 dwellings, has a high chance of being developed.

“Based on that forecast, the Gold Coast expansion area provides just 10.5 years of dwelling supply based on historical demand.”

The figure is well below the Shaping SEQ benchmark of the council providing a minimum 15 years of dwelling supply in the consolidation and expansion areas within the urban footprint.

Mr Matusik said a final sieve analysis shows the situation is even more dire for the Gold Coast’s low-density housing supply.

Of the dwellings with a high chance of being developed by 2041, Mr Matusik estimates that the existing expansion area is likely to yield 4,808 house-and-land products and 5,734 high-density dwellings.

“Based on these high-chance figures and the annual average dwelling demand for new housing stock over the past 10 years, the Gold Coast expansion area provides approximately 6.3 years of supply,” said Mr Matusik.

“Significantly, with the increased demand for detached housing stock, those of 25 dwellings per hectare or less, there is less than four years of supply of land remaining within the Gold Coast expansion area.”

The 2023 Gold Coast Dwelling Supply Study estimates that Coomera will provide the majority of the 17,564 dwellings it has identified as a viable target for the Gold Coast. The study says some 44 per cent of the total available supply is within the Centre and High Density Residential zoned land surrounding the Coomera Town Centre.

“Overall, approximately 50 per cent of the total available dwelling supply in the expansion area is located within three individual development sites, being Skyridge (Worongary), Calypso Bay (Jacobs Well) and Coomera Quarter/Coomera Woods (Coomera),” said the report.

“Outside of these areas, the balance of the city’s expansion area accommodates only 29 per cent (5,020 dwellings) of the total potential dwelling supply.”

David Ransom, Director of Zone Planning Group, describes the latest Gold Coast Dwelling Supply Study as a sobering analysis of the housing crisis facing the Gold Coast and Southeast Queensland more broadly.

“There is no magic solution to the dwelling supply problem, and it will require a range of public sector and private sector responses,” said Mr Ransom.

“Unfortunately, it is unlikely that a few entities doing ‘big’ projects will solve this problem, and equally unlikely that a large number of entities doing ‘small’ projects will solve the problem.

“But the first steps should be to both compress our growing population into existing housing stock while expanding the current housing supply, both through infill and greenfield development.”

The expansion approach should look at scrapping the Southeast Queensland Regional Plan’s urban footprint to unlock suitable land that could readily accommodate development and align it with other regional plans in Queensland that don’t have this development blocker.

“Currently any urban residential subdivision outside the SEQ Regional Plan’s urban footprint boundary is prohibited, but land exists outside of this footprint that is flood free with no environmental constraints and is able to be serviced,” said Mr Ransom.

“Overlay maps within Planning Schemes already lock up large areas of expansion land to prevent unregulated urban development, so why is the SEQ Regional Plan prohibition relevant any more?”

Mr Ransom said the ‘compression’ approach could include a review of Rooming Accommodation regulations which enable unrelated residents to occupy a premises in rooms which are not self-contained.

“Queensland Planning Regulation allows for a maximum of five rooms and five people in Rooming Accommodation that typically does not require planning approval. Five appears to be the magic number under the Queensland Planning Regulation, but can it be higher?

“The waiving of infrastructure charges for this land use (and for Secondary Dwellings) could unlock a new stream of low-cost housing.”

Mr Ransom also sees government incentives potentially playing a part, urging the Queensland Government to adopt a NSW Government incentive scheme that encourages greater supply of social housing.

The NSW Government allows for a 30 per cent increase in building height, residential density and floor space ratio where 15 per cent of dwellings in a development are set aside for affordable housing.

Among the innovative solutions proposed by Mr Ransom is the construction of prefabricated dwellings, or tiny homes, to provide temporary housing relief while the market catches up to demand.

“Structures could be placed in suburban backyards, with a streamlined process to access water, sewer and power. They can be relocated to alternate locations around the country as required, thus facilitating long-term redevelopment of the land.

“The Queensland Government should promote this form of development and introduce the necessary streamline measures via the Queensland Planning Regulation.”

This report was launched on Thursday night (13th) at the Southport Yacht Club in a public event hosted by Bennett + Bennett and Zone Planning. All monies raised will go to the Salvation Army.